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Hudson River
I've been taking an online course for a few weeks. The professor is a seventy-year-old man originally from Belize who lives in the Bronx. By day, he runs his own tax preparation business and teaches at the university in the evenings. In class, on Zoom, he always appears on camera wearing his baseball cap. The presidential election is on Tuesday, November 3rd, and at the end of the last class, the professor smiled and warned us: "If I won't show up next time, call the patrol and tell them to look for me in the Hudson River. I couldn't bear four more years of this!" - "If I don't show up for class next time, tell the police patrol to look for me in the Hudson River. I couldn't bear four more years of this." He was joking; it's definitely not a good idea to jump off a bridge if Trump is re-elected. But it shocked me to hear a normally calm and rational person like him equate that possibility to an existential threat. I mention this episode because I believe it's a barometer of how many Americans, on one side or the other of the political spectrum, are experiencing this election. That's why I think it's important to tell you about the state of democracy in America and what's happened to it over the past year.
The state of the elections
The American electoral system is not in good health. Anyone would think it's a perfectly crafted machine. After all, it's the system that democratic nations drew inspiration from to write their constitutions. But that's not the case. Even before the pandemic hit, the electoral system was old and rusty.
In the 2016 presidential elections, just over 561 TP3T of eligible voters turned out to vote. If we compare this performance with that of its siblings, the world's oldest democracy, we wouldn't say it's a good example to follow. The United States ranks second. 26th place among the 32 nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Italy is in 16th place with 65,28%).
America's poor performance is tied to the huge gap between those eligible to vote (more than 250 million in 2016) and those who actually exercise their right (about 139 million in 2016). This is because in America, the right to vote isn't automatically acquired upon reaching the age of majority; you must request it through the registration process. And each state manages registration differently, adopting rules that can be used at will, often to restrict the number of voters. For example, in some Southern and Midwestern states, voting rights are made more complicated for former inmates, a measure estimated to have reduced turnout by 2 to 3 percentage points, corresponding to tens of thousands of votes. Other ways to restrict the right to vote? Making the registration process lengthy and difficult, "accidentally" removing entire groups of voters from the electoral rolls, eliminating polling stations by increasing waiting times at the remaining ones, and limiting or excluding early voting on weekends.
The contaminated elections
The combined effect of Trump and the pandemic have contributed to weakening the system's credibility.
To avoid the possibility of contagion in lines and at polling places, several states have increased absentee ballot options. Trump, aware over the summer that he was behind in the polls, decided to attack not only his opponent, but the electoral system itself. "I think absentee voting is horrible. It's corrupt. (...) Look at what happens where they take thousands of absentee ballots and throw them away. There's a lot of dishonesty with mail-in voting." When a massive use of mail-in votes, Trump – rather than worrying about oiling the system to ensure its smooth functioning – called for a boycott and used his position of power to become the main boycotter. In fact, over the summer Trump refused to finance the strengthening of the postal system (already close to financial collapse), and – as if that were not enough – in May 2020 he appointed as postmaster general Louis DeJoy. The new administrator has further weakened the postal system by ordering the dismantling of machinery and the reduction of street collection points, eliminating overtime and prohibiting additional shifts for mail delivery.
Fearful of their ballot being lost or arriving after the November 3 deadline due to postal delays, many voters chose the option of early in-person voting (the most states allows you to vote several days before election day). Less than a week from November 3rd, well 75 million Americans – half of those who voted in 2016 – had already cast their ballots. Early voting was introduced in New York for the first time this year, and on the first day of voting, Saturday, October 24, there were lines at the main polling stations.
Who will win?
Another distortion that weakens the system is this: the President of the United States of America can be elected even if he or she doesn't receive a majority of the electors' votes. This is because the most important political office in the US isn't directly elected; the President is elected by the winner in the states that allow for the highest number of points (electoral colleges).
There are 563 points up for grabs, and the winner is the one who gets half plus one, or 270. Each state allows you to win a certain number of points. For example, if you win in New York State, you get 29 points. Within each state, points are not distributed proportionally among the candidates; instead, whoever receives the most votes takes all the points. For example, if a candidate wins in New York with 50.11 TP3T of the vote, they are awarded all 29 points; all other candidates receive 0 points.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had won more votes, but Trump had won the states that earned you the most points. It is said that Hillary Clinton had won the popular vote and Trump the electoral vote. In American history, they are only 4 cases in which a president was elected without the consent of at least half of the electors: two of these cases occurred in the 19th century, the other two in the 2000s (Bush vs. Gore in 2000, Trump vs. Clinton in 2016).
The coup de grace
When I was in Italy, Trump's rise and his presidency were a distant memory. But since moving to America, I've had the opportunity to follow him more closely.
Trump is not a politician, he is a showman. If you compare his career with that of the previous presidents Among Americans, Trump is the only one who has never held any public office. As a real estate developer and host of the reality show "“The Apprentice”", he directly became President of the United States of America. Trump does not come from politics. And that is why many Americans who support him allow him to be out of line: "I like him because he says what he thinks!" But for those who manage one of the most powerful nations in the world, being institutional is not superfluous, but becomes essential to keep a nation at peace and united. On the contrary, Trump has seized every opportunity to divide and further polarize the electorateEither you think like me or you're against me. There's no middle ground.
Trump has proven to be irresponsible and careless about what was happening during the pandemic. First he declares that the virus "will go away just as quickly as it came," then he incites his supporters to pressure states to reopen businesses ("“Liberate Michigan”), then suggests injecting disinfectant to defeat the virus, and finally comments on the death toll (more than 200,000), saying “It is what it is”.
If re-elected, Trump will be the final blow to American democracy and pose a serious threat to the future of other Western democracies.
For further information: Netflix – Explained – The right to vote
Alessandro Casiraghi
Photo by Alessandro Casiraghi, Trump Boat Rally in Block Island, Rhode Island[:]
